New York-based Aaron Gurwitz said on Wednesday that there is a 80 per cent chance that the global economy could recover by the end of this year, with Asia at the forefront of the revival.
'We want to take risks in Asia,' said Mr Gurwitz, who has recommended that investors consider overweight equities in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan region for their portfolios.
'If we get to the end of this year, and if all the things that all the governments and central banks have done - bringing intererst rates to zero, quantitative easing and massive stimulus packages - don't get their economies growing again, the pyschological impact will be devastating,' he said.
Mr Gurwitz, who was speaking at a media briefing here, tipped the timing and robustness of the recovery on factors like the savings rate of US consumers in light of the credit crunch, as well as the success of the International Monetary Fund's bailout of Eastern European banks.
But the global recovery will also depend on whether China raises its consumption levels.
'One of the top things... is China's success in shifting from an export-oriented economic development strategy to a more balanced domestic demand-oriented growth strategy,' Mr Gurwitz said.
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