Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Pacific Andes - Buy by OCBC (26 May 09)

Good set of FY09 results. Pacific Andes Holdings (PAH) posted better than expected net earnings of HK$664m for FY09, up 38% YoY. While revenue was in line with our expectation, up 12% to HK7847m, the better bottomline performance was partly due to deferred tax credit of HK$70m in FY09 versus tax charge of HK$26m in the previous year. This is not expected to recur in FY10. PAH's 4Q earnings came in at HK$237m, up 8% YoY and 172% QoQ. Revenue also improved in 4Q by 23% YoY and 120% QoQ to HK$637m. 4QFY09 margins showed across the board improvement from 3QFY09, but FY09 margins were slightly lower than FY08. Note that the group has not declared any dividend for FY09.

Rights issue to meet working capital needs. Together with the FY09 results, PAH also proposed a renounceable underwritten Rights issue on the basis of one rights share for every one existing share held and one warrant for every five Rights shares at an issue price of S$0.15 per Rights share. This is at a 51% discount to the pre-suspension price of S$0.305. The exercise price for the warrants is fixed at S$0.23. Key shareholder Pacific Andes International Holdings Ltd (PAIH), which holds a 65.1% stake in PAH, has given its irrevocable undertaking to subscribe for its entitlements. We estimate that net gearing will drop from 91% to 76% with the Rights

Maintain BUY, up fair value estimate to 63 cents. In addition to the good results, management reassured us that the deployment of the five vessels to the South Pacific is on track and should commence contribution in 2QFY10. Demand and pricing seem to be holding well and not affected by the recent H1N1 scare or the current global recession. This has given us confidence to raise our selling prices for its fish and fishmeal products as well as including organic growth from the above vessel redeployment exercise. We are also revising up our FY10 earnings estimate from HK$440m to HK$720m and introducing FY11 earnings expectation of HK$822m, up 14% YoY. Rolling our estimates into FY10 & FY11, we are raising our fair value estimate from 30 cents to 63 cents (based on 6x blended earnings). Maintain BUY.

* Note: After the post rights issue, there has been 2 BUY recommendations (OCBC and DBS Vickers) and 1 Sell Recommendation

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