Thursday, November 27, 2008

Global Financial Crisis (Thinking like Taleb)

What would Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Fooled by Randomness and the Black Swan, think about the current global financial crisis? After reading the Black Swan, it seems that people would have a way to explain all things retrospectively.

So lets take the current global financial crisis and 2 scenarios that could happen.

Scenario #1: All things turn well after 2009. Recession in many countries but businesses start to pick up and by end 2009, we all forget about the global financial crisis.

Scenario#2: All hell breaks loose. Scenarios worse than the Great Depression takes place.

The funny thing about humans is that no matter which scenario takes place, we would have a way to explain WHY it happened when we think back retrospectively. Hindsight they say is 6/6.

So if scenario #1 happens, the newspapers would start to explain why the global financial crisis just lead to a mild recession and how it was so predictable that the markets would eventually pick up again.

If scenario #2 happens, same thing happens. Everyone from economist, journalist, newsreader would be saying it was so obvious that all hell would break loose given all the indicators.

Humans just have a way of explaining anything (and i really mean anything) retrospectively.

So would the economy recover in 2009 or is worse still to come?

I guess Nassim Nicholas Taleb would answer : " I truly don't know"

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